Predictions 2024: Grading My Own Homework

2024 is in the books, and it’s time to grade my homework. One year ago I posted my 2024 predictions, fresh off a so-so showing in 2023. So how’d I do this time? Not bad, actually. To the results:

1. The AI party takes a pause. One year ago I was skeptical that AI would continue its tear — it seemed to me we had a lot to process, both societally as well as in the tech itself. And while AI remained the top tech story, many of those stories were about how the technology seemed to be stalling. Halfway through the year, the Washington Post noted that “Wall St. Is Starting to See a Bubble.” By year’s end, the Journal declared “The Next Great Leap in AI Is Behind Schedule and Crazy Expensive.” Along the way, the headlines kept coming: “The Data That Powers A.I. Is Disappearing Fast,” “The AI Revolution Is Losing Steam,” the former top researcher at OpenAI seeing the “end of peak data,” the CEO of Google telling us that “the low hanging fruit is gone,” and finally, the Times, just this past week, asking “Is the Tech Industry Already on the Cusp of an A.I. Slowdown?” Prediction #1: Check.
2. But Progress Continues… For my second prediction, I gave myself something of an out — yes, AI will take a pause, but there will still be a lot of interesting developments. And progress did indeed continue — tens of thousands of startups are toiling away at possible…